Mickey the Mouth
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- May 21, 2026
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A true-blue underdog descended upon Aronimink Golf Club to win the 2026 PGA Championship after Aaron Rai shot a 5-under 65 on Sunday, May 17 to seal the deal.
It's the 31-year-old's first-ever major victory.
Below is a rundown of Neil Parker's PGA Championship predictions and golf picks from the week that was, including a pair of winners!
See our PGA Championship AI picks for extra information to help with your best bets this week.
The PGA Championship was be played at Aronimink Golf Club from Thursday, May 14, through Sunday, May 17, with 156 golfers in the field before a 36-hole cut to the Top 70 players and ties. Below are the final standings of the Top 10 at golf's second major of the season.
Opening odds courtesy of GolfOdds.com.
Check out the full PGA Championship field, and our early PGA Championship long shots predictions.
Aronimink Golf Club, originally designed by legendary architect Donald Ross in 1928, underwent a massive 2017 restoration by Gil Hanse that recaptured its original championship identity.
Hanse sculpted the property back into a penalizing 7,394-yard Par 70, including notably more than doubling the bunker count to an eye-popping 174 bunkers. The clustered bunkering and severely contoured greens pair to make each hole more difficult the closer you are to the actual hole, which is a noted signature of Ross’ tracks.
These two characteristics are the best defenses of the course Ross himself dubbed his “masterpiece,” and it’s the only true course-management test where risk/reward decisions and shots will swing scores. Additionally, executing tough around-the-green looks will be the difference between making pars or bogeys multiple times a round.
Still, players will need to excel throughout the bag while managing aggressive play alongside taking what the course gives them to score.
Historical data from past events shows that while distance provides an edge, tee-to-green precision is required into the push-up greens at Aronimink. In particular, accuracy is critical to navigate the uneven lies and manage the difficult approach angles Hanse restored to protect the course from modern equipment.
Narrowed fairways shouldn’t surprise, either.
I am not anticipating those defenses to stand up, though. The last time the PGA Tour played Aronimink for the 2018 BMW Championship, there were 11 players who shot -16 or lower, with the winning score at -20.
While the elements could impact playing conditions, Philadelphia weather in May won’t allow the track to play firm and fast, so I’m not anticipating a true grind reminiscent of recent PGA Championships.
The two-time 2026 winner paces this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across a seven-event heater, while also winning twice and finishing T3 in both the Arnold Palmer and the Masters. Cameron Young is impressively second in bogey avoidance and fourth in adjusted scoring average for the season, too.
Risk: Young may have already peaked in 2026.
In addition to ranking third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth in driving accuracy across his past 18 events, Russell Henley also sits third in bogey avoidance, 11th in Par 4 scoring average and 16th in adjusted scoring average in 2026.
Risk: Henley has never won a major championship.
It’s next to automatic for Ludvig Aberg right now. He’s carded five Top 10s across his past six events while ranking second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches during the heater.
Risk: Aberg's lone finish outside the Top 20 during highlighted heater was in the Masters.
Don’t fret Collin Morikawa playing poorly in the Cadillac Championship because it was a poor course fit, and he was in cruise control before with five consecutive Top 10s dating back to his win at Pebble Beach.
Risk: Injury concerns still linger after withdraw from THE PLAYERS.
Alex Fitzpatrick followed up his T9 in the Cadillac Championship with a solo-fourth in the Truist while ranking second in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches across the two events.
Risk: Fitzpatrick has only played in a single major championship.
It’s been a solid season-long surge for Alex Smalley. He’s carded seven Top 25s across his past nine events while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking 21st in tee-to-green play. His game is on the rise.
Risk: Smalley has limited experience in major championships.
Rain early this week and into Round 1 is going to soften the playing conditions at Aronimink to prevent the track from playing firm and fast. Instead, soft landing areas and receptive greens will enable players to navigate the course more easily from the tee and then allow them to attack pins.
Keegan Bradley and Justin Rose both finished the 2018 BMW Championship at -20 here, and four players fired single-round 62s: Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Kevin Na, and Tommy Fleetwood (twice).
Additionally, technology has improved across the board, and players have increased distance and forgiveness without sacrificing accuracy throughout the bag.
PGA Championship first-round leader predictions via Esten McLaren
Tee time: 8:40 a.m. ET | Group: Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm
I took Rory McIlroy as one of my first-round leader predictions last week, and that ticket quickly went up in flames. I'll trust (hope?) that he used the Truist Championship to shake out the kinks in his first tournament action since winning the Masters.
I firmly believe McIlroy is squarely on the hunt for majors now that he has two green jackets in the closet. I expect to see pressure-free golf, as we did in the first two rounds at Augusta National. I like his early tee time, which will have him safely in the clubhouse at Aronimink before the afternoon wind picks up for the likes of Scottie Scheffler (2:05 p.m. ET tee time).
Don’t think the moment is too big for Alex Smalley.
He entered the week with five consecutive Top 25 finishes, gaining true strokes across the board and ranking 21st in adjusted scoring average on the PGA Tour this season.
While there’s definitely potential for Smalley’s work on the greens to cool off, considering he leads the field in true strokes gained putting, he’s still made 10 birdies and hit 24 of 36 greens in regulation through the first two rounds.
Check out Neil Parker's Round 3 picks!
Unsurprisingly, reigning PGA Champion and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler opened as the betting favorite at BetMGM, and his +450 odds have a PGA Championship win probability of 18.2%. Scheffler is followed by back-to-back Masters winner Rory McIlroy and two-time 2026 winner Cameron Young to form a clear Top 3.
McIlroy has seen his odd climb slightly, with him up to +900 early Wednesday morning. Interestingly, he also saw a small jump in price ahead of the Masters in April. While I’ve listed McIlroy as a fade in my PGA Championship power rankings, and I don’t think his odds will grow much longer, there’s a buying point in the +1200 neighbourhood that would change my tune.
On the flip side, Ludvig Aberg has seen a small decline in price to +1800 at BetMGM, and I’m anticipating a solid showing at Aronimink from him. It’s when, and not if, Aberg wins a major championship, and this could be the week.
Surprisingly, Jordan Spieth is the largest liability at BetMGM ahead of Round 1, and it makes for a fun storyline. Spieth would complete the career Grand Slam this week with the addition of a PGA Championship title to his resume, and Aronimink would have been an ideal track for Spieth when he was at the peak of his powers.
The problem is Spieth’s last Top 10 in a major was in the 2023 Masters, and he hasn’t had a single Top 10 finish in 2026.
Otherwise, the betting insights from BetMGM are as expected. The noted Aberg odds move aligns with him carrying the third-highest betting handle at the shop, with Scheffler leading the way and Young in second.
Additionally, the McIlroy price climb also correlates with him receiving the fifth-highest betting handle.
How to watch:
Tee times:
World No. 1 and reigning PGA Championship winner Scottie Scheffler (+450) is the betting favorite at BetMGM.
The 2026 PGA Championship will be played from Thursday, May 14, to Sunday, May 17.
The 2026 PGA Championship will be played at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa.
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
When betting PGA Championship matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
The PGA Championship features a cut to the Top 70 players and ties following the completion of Round 2.
You'll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks for the PGA Championship; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
View complete report...
A true-blue underdog descended upon Aronimink Golf Club to win the 2026 PGA Championship after Aaron Rai shot a 5-under 65 on Sunday, May 17 to seal the deal.
It's the 31-year-old's first-ever major victory.
Below is a rundown of Neil Parker's PGA Championship predictions and golf picks from the week that was, including a pair of winners!
PGA Championship: Key takeaways
- Outright winner: Aaron Rai (+20000): A massive underdog, Rai shot 5-under on Sunday's final round to win by three strokes.
- The top 3: Jon Rahm exorcised his demons and Justin Thomas shot 5-under to close out the tournament to finish tied with Matti Schmid in third.
- Aronimink Golf Club: The intended defenses of this 7,394-yard Par 70 are unlikely to truly challenge the elite talents in spring playing conditions
- Weather: Sunny conditions are expected for the rest of the weekend.
See our PGA Championship AI picks for extra information to help with your best bets this week.
PGA Championship odds: favorites & full field
The PGA Championship was be played at Aronimink Golf Club from Thursday, May 14, through Sunday, May 17, with 156 golfers in the field before a 36-hole cut to the Top 70 players and ties. Below are the final standings of the Top 10 at golf's second major of the season.
| Golfer | |
|---|---|
 1 | Aaron Rai |
 T2 | Jon Rahm |
| T2 | Alex Smalley |
| T4 | Matti Schmid |
| T4 | Justin Thomas |
| T4 | Ludvig Aberg |
| T7 | Cameron Smith |
| T7 | Xander Schauffele |
| T7 | Rory McIlroy |
| T10 | Kurt Kitayama |
| T10 | Justin Rose |
| T10 | Chris Gotterup |
| T10 | Patrick Reed |
[th width="26.0241%"]
Opening odds
[/th][th width="26.0241%"]Scores
[/th][td width="26.0241%"]
+20000
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]70 | 69 | 67 | 65 (-9)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+1400
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]69 | 70 | 67 | 68 (-6)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+15000
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]67 | 69 | 68 | 70 (-6)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+60000
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]69 | 72 | 65 | 69 (-5)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+6000
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]69 | 69 | 72 | 65 (-5)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+1800
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]72 | 66 | 68 | 69 (-5)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+30000
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]69 | 71 | 68 | 68 (-4)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+1800
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]68 | 73 | 66 | 69 (-4)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+1000
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]74 | 67 | 66 | 69 (-4)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+8000
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]72 | 68 | 66 | 69 (-3)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+6000
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]70 | 73 | 65 | 69 (-3)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+6000
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]72 | 65 | 71 | 69 (-3)
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]
+9000
[/td][td width="26.0241%"]68 | 72 | 67 | 70 (-3)
[/td]Opening odds courtesy of GolfOdds.com.
Live PGA Championship odds at Kalshi
Check out the full PGA Championship field, and our early PGA Championship long shots predictions.
Best bets card
Outright: Cameron Young to win (+1200): The statistics and confidence jump off the page, and Young ranking second in bogey avoidance and fourth in adjusted scoring have my attention.- Outright: Russell Henley to win (+5500): Aronimink sets up perfectly for Henley's tee-to-green game, and he has three consecutive Top 10s in major championships
Top 20: Ludvig Aberg (-105): The tee-to-green game has been dialed during Aberg's run of seven Top 20s across his past eight events- Top 20: Collin Morikawa (+150): Paces field in true strokes gained on approaches in 2026, and Morikawa has carded five Top 10s in his past six events
- Top 40: Alex Fitzpatrick (+125): Elite tee-to-green play has paved the way to a pair of wins among five straight worldwide Top 10s
- Top 40: Alex Smalley (+130): Five consecutive Top 25s while gaining true strokes across the board, Smalley sports the well-rounded game to continue his season-long surge
- Winning score: Under 267.5 (-130): Rain early this week and into Round 1 is going to soften the playing conditions at Aronimink to prevent the track from playing firm and fast
Course breakdown: Aronimink Golf Club
Aronimink Golf Club, originally designed by legendary architect Donald Ross in 1928, underwent a massive 2017 restoration by Gil Hanse that recaptured its original championship identity.
Hanse sculpted the property back into a penalizing 7,394-yard Par 70, including notably more than doubling the bunker count to an eye-popping 174 bunkers. The clustered bunkering and severely contoured greens pair to make each hole more difficult the closer you are to the actual hole, which is a noted signature of Ross’ tracks.
These two characteristics are the best defenses of the course Ross himself dubbed his “masterpiece,” and it’s the only true course-management test where risk/reward decisions and shots will swing scores. Additionally, executing tough around-the-green looks will be the difference between making pars or bogeys multiple times a round.
Still, players will need to excel throughout the bag while managing aggressive play alongside taking what the course gives them to score.
Historical data from past events shows that while distance provides an edge, tee-to-green precision is required into the push-up greens at Aronimink. In particular, accuracy is critical to navigate the uneven lies and manage the difficult approach angles Hanse restored to protect the course from modern equipment.
Narrowed fairways shouldn’t surprise, either.
I am not anticipating those defenses to stand up, though. The last time the PGA Tour played Aronimink for the 2018 BMW Championship, there were 11 players who shot -16 or lower, with the winning score at -20.
While the elements could impact playing conditions, Philadelphia weather in May won’t allow the track to play firm and fast, so I’m not anticipating a true grind reminiscent of recent PGA Championships.
- Narrowed fairways could test bomb-and-gouge driving
- The 174 bunkers are clustered and can challenge depth perception
- Accuracy is required tee-to-green, and especially with long irons
- Massive and contoured green complexes feature run-offs
- Intended course defenses are unlikely to hold up in May
Players to watch
- Scottie Scheffler: With three consecutive solo-seconds while pacing this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, Scheffler’s ball-striking prowess has been on full display, and he’s a perfect course fit to go low at Aronimink.
- Jon Rahm: Oddsmakers aren’t giving any discounts with the Spaniard, and Rahm's odds would likely be even shorter if he finished better in the Masters because he has the complete game to succeed at this shot-maker's track.
Key stats & player profiles to target
- True strokes gained tee-to-green
- Driving accuracy
- Adjusted scoring average
- Bogey avoidance
- Scrambling and true strokes gained around-the-green
Players to watch
- Cameron Young: The two-time 2026 winner has paced this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past seven events, while also winning twice and finishing T3 in both the Arnold Palmer and the Masters, and Young ranks second in bogey avoidance and fourth in adjusted scoring average for the season.
- Ludvig Aberg: It’s becoming automatic for Aberg, and he’s gained true strokes across the board, including ranking fourth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 13th in accuracy while carding four Top 5s across his past seven events.
Outright picks: winners to bet
Pick 1: Cameron Young to win (+1200)
The two-time 2026 winner paces this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across a seven-event heater, while also winning twice and finishing T3 in both the Arnold Palmer and the Masters. Cameron Young is impressively second in bogey avoidance and fourth in adjusted scoring average for the season, too.
- Course Fit: Young's game travels without true weaknesses
- Recent Form: Top 10s in six of past seven events with two wins
- Key Stat: Fourth in adjusted scoring average this season
Risk: Young may have already peaked in 2026.
Pick 2: Russell Henley to win (+5500)
In addition to ranking third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth in driving accuracy across his past 18 events, Russell Henley also sits third in bogey avoidance, 11th in Par 4 scoring average and 16th in adjusted scoring average in 2026.
- Course Fit: Aronimink sets up perfectly for his tee-to-green precision
- Recent Form: Three straight Top 10s in majors, including T3 in Masters
- Key Stat: Ranks third in bogey avoidance in 2026
Risk: Henley has never won a major championship.
Top placement bets
Pick 1: Ludvig Aberg Top 20 (-105)
It’s next to automatic for Ludvig Aberg right now. He’s carded five Top 10s across his past six events while ranking second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches during the heater.
- Course Fit: Aberg oozes the perfect precision-power combo
- Recent Form: Elite run of seven Top 20s across past eight events
- Key Stat: Ranks 10th in adjusted scoring average in 2026
Risk: Aberg's lone finish outside the Top 20 during highlighted heater was in the Masters.
Pick 2: Collin Morikawa Top 20 (+150)
Don’t fret Collin Morikawa playing poorly in the Cadillac Championship because it was a poor course fit, and he was in cruise control before with five consecutive Top 10s dating back to his win at Pebble Beach.
- Course Fit: Few can match Morikawa’s tee-to-green precision
- Recent Form: Ball-striking numbers and 2026 results pop
- Key Stat: Paces field in true strokes gained on approaches in 2026
Risk: Injury concerns still linger after withdraw from THE PLAYERS.
Pick 3: Alex Fitzpatrick Top 40 (+125)
Alex Fitzpatrick followed up his T9 in the Cadillac Championship with a solo-fourth in the Truist while ranking second in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches across the two events.
- Course Fit: Tee-to-green play is perfect for Aronimink
- Recent Form: Pair of wins among five straight worldwide Top 10s
- Key Stat: Elite 28.47% birdie-or-better percentage past two events
Risk: Fitzpatrick has only played in a single major championship.
Pick 4: Alex Smalley Top 40 (+140)
It’s been a solid season-long surge for Alex Smalley. He’s carded seven Top 25s across his past nine events while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking 21st in tee-to-green play. His game is on the rise.
- Course Fit: Accurate tee-to-green play and tidy putting will play
- Recent Form: Five consecutive Top 25s with true strokes gained across the board
- Key Stat: Ranks 21st in adjusted scoring average this season
Risk: Smalley has limited experience in major championships.
Tournament prop bets
Winning score: Under 267.5 (-130)
Rain early this week and into Round 1 is going to soften the playing conditions at Aronimink to prevent the track from playing firm and fast. Instead, soft landing areas and receptive greens will enable players to navigate the course more easily from the tee and then allow them to attack pins.
Keegan Bradley and Justin Rose both finished the 2018 BMW Championship at -20 here, and four players fired single-round 62s: Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Kevin Na, and Tommy Fleetwood (twice).
Additionally, technology has improved across the board, and players have increased distance and forgiveness without sacrificing accuracy throughout the bag.
First-round leader picks
PGA Championship first-round leader predictions via Esten McLaren
Rory McIlroy (4.7%)
Tee time: 8:40 a.m. ET | Group: Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm
I took Rory McIlroy as one of my first-round leader predictions last week, and that ticket quickly went up in flames. I'll trust (hope?) that he used the Truist Championship to shake out the kinks in his first tournament action since winning the Masters.
I firmly believe McIlroy is squarely on the hunt for majors now that he has two green jackets in the closet. I expect to see pressure-free golf, as we did in the first two rounds at Augusta National. I like his early tee time, which will have him safely in the clubhouse at Aronimink before the afternoon wind picks up for the likes of Scottie Scheffler (2:05 p.m. ET tee time).
Best pick heading into Round 3: Alex Smalley Top 10: Yes (+101/strong48¢/strong)
Don’t think the moment is too big for Alex Smalley.
He entered the week with five consecutive Top 25 finishes, gaining true strokes across the board and ranking 21st in adjusted scoring average on the PGA Tour this season.
While there’s definitely potential for Smalley’s work on the greens to cool off, considering he leads the field in true strokes gained putting, he’s still made 10 birdies and hit 24 of 36 greens in regulation through the first two rounds.
Check out Neil Parker's Round 3 picks!
Odds movement & market notes
Unsurprisingly, reigning PGA Champion and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler opened as the betting favorite at BetMGM, and his +450 odds have a PGA Championship win probability of 18.2%. Scheffler is followed by back-to-back Masters winner Rory McIlroy and two-time 2026 winner Cameron Young to form a clear Top 3.
McIlroy has seen his odd climb slightly, with him up to +900 early Wednesday morning. Interestingly, he also saw a small jump in price ahead of the Masters in April. While I’ve listed McIlroy as a fade in my PGA Championship power rankings, and I don’t think his odds will grow much longer, there’s a buying point in the +1200 neighbourhood that would change my tune.
On the flip side, Ludvig Aberg has seen a small decline in price to +1800 at BetMGM, and I’m anticipating a solid showing at Aronimink from him. It’s when, and not if, Aberg wins a major championship, and this could be the week.
Surprisingly, Jordan Spieth is the largest liability at BetMGM ahead of Round 1, and it makes for a fun storyline. Spieth would complete the career Grand Slam this week with the addition of a PGA Championship title to his resume, and Aronimink would have been an ideal track for Spieth when he was at the peak of his powers.
The problem is Spieth’s last Top 10 in a major was in the 2023 Masters, and he hasn’t had a single Top 10 finish in 2026.
Otherwise, the betting insights from BetMGM are as expected. The noted Aberg odds move aligns with him carrying the third-highest betting handle at the shop, with Scheffler leading the way and Young in second.
Additionally, the McIlroy price climb also correlates with him receiving the fifth-highest betting handle.
How to watch the PGA Championship & tee times (quick links)
How to watch:
- Thursday-Friday: 12-8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Saturday-Sunday: 10 a.m.-1 p.m. ET (ESPN), 1-7 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tee times:
PGA Championship betting FAQ
Who is the 2026 PGA Championship favorite?
World No. 1 and reigning PGA Championship winner Scottie Scheffler (+450) is the betting favorite at BetMGM.
When is the 2026 PGA Championship?
The 2026 PGA Championship will be played from Thursday, May 14, to Sunday, May 17.
Where will the 2026 PGA Championship be played?
The 2026 PGA Championship will be played at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa.
What are PGA Championship FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do PGA Championship matchup bets work?
When betting PGA Championship matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the PGA Championship cut line?
The PGA Championship features a cut to the Top 70 players and ties following the completion of Round 2.
Are PGA Championship odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks for the PGA Championship; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
View complete report...