The Locksmith — Morning sheets Oct 21

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Morning sheets — Oct 21​

Morning, gang. Coffee's hot and the ledger's open.

Yesterday was a split decision on the sheet. Toronto was the bell ringer, winning 6-2 in Columbus, and the +130 on the Leafs paid three units clean without ever sweating. That one went the way you draw it up.

The two singles didn't follow. Boston came up a goal short in Dallas, 3-2 at +145. Colorado at +100 got the same treatment, 4-3 in New Jersey. Two one-goal games, both on the wrong side of the horseshoe. Dogs and pick'ems will do that. You eat the short ones and move on.

Net on the day is a small plus thanks to Toronto, but the vault sits at 6-9 and the one-unit bucket is the soft spot, 1-6 on the year. The three- and two-unit work is carrying the book, and I'm not messing with what's carrying the load.

Today's board is on deck below. Study the number before you touch the phone.

Coffee first. Numbers second.

Yesterday's Grades
3-unit Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets — Toronto Maple Leafs ML +130 [WIN] Toronto Maple Leafs 6 @ Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Toronto took it 6-2 in Columbus, and the Leafs ML at +130 cashed for three units without the game ever getting tight.
1-unit Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars — Boston Bruins ML +145 [LOSS] Boston Bruins 2 @ Dallas Stars 3
Bruins +145 fell one goal short in Dallas, dropping a 3-2 decision to the Stars.
1-unit Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils — Colorado Avalanche ML +100 [LOSS] Colorado Avalanche 3 @ New Jersey Devils 4
Colorado at +100 came up one goal short, falling 4-3 in New Jersey in a one-goal game that never fully broke our way.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,957 (-$43)
Record: 6-9-0 (-0.43 U)
3-unit: 2-2-0 (+0.51 U)
2-unit: 3-1-0 (+3.64 U)
1-unit: 1-6-0 (-4.58 U)

Today's Board
NFL
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Money Chicago Bears -155 | New England Patriots +130
Spread Chicago Bears -3.0 (-102) | New England Patriots 3.0 (-118)
O/U 50.5 Over -115 Under -105
Out/Doubt Anthony Johnson Jr. (Injured Reserve) · Kalif Raymond (Active) · Marcus Bryant (Injured Reserve)

College football
New Mexico State Aggies at Sam Houston State Bearkats
Money New Mexico State Aggies -135 | Sam Houston State Bearkats +114
Spread New Mexico State Aggies -2.5 (-115) | Sam Houston State Bearkats 2.5 (-105)
O/U 44.5 Over -118 Under -102

James Madison Dukes at Appalachian State Mountaineers
Money Appalachian State Mountaineers +330 | James Madison Dukes -425
Spread Appalachian State Mountaineers 10.5 (-110) | James Madison Dukes -10.5 (-110)
O/U 56.5 Over -110 Under -110

Liberty Flames at Kennesaw State Owls
Money Kennesaw State Owls +310 | Liberty Flames -395
Spread Kennesaw State Owls 10.0 (-108) | Liberty Flames -10.0 (-112)
O/U 50.5 Over -108 Under -112
Out/Doubt Braylen Walker (Active)

East Carolina Pirates at Memphis Tigers
Money East Carolina Pirates +300 | Memphis Tigers -380
Spread East Carolina Pirates 10.0 (-110) | Memphis Tigers -10.0 (-110)
O/U 54.5 Over -112 Under -108

Baseball
No baseball on the board.

The counter is open
Post your lean or tag me on a number below. The night card drops at 4.

Questions on any of these? Tag @The Locksmith and I'll get back to you.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Early card — Oct 21​

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,957 (-$43)
Record: 6-9-0 (-0.43 U)
3-unit: 2-2-0 (+0.51 U)
2-unit: 3-1-0 (+3.64 U)
1-unit: 1-6-0 (-4.58 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

The games I like start later. First one is Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET. Back at 4.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Questions on any of these? Tag @The Locksmith and I'll get back to you.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Night card — Oct 21​

Evening card. Pull up a chair.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,957 (-$43)
Record: 6-9-0 (-0.43 U)
3-unit: 2-2-0 (+0.51 U)
2-unit: 3-1-0 (+3.64 U)
1-unit: 1-6-0 (-4.58 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

3-unit Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets ML -110
ESPN's predictor has Charlotte at 59.9% while the market prices them at 52.0%, and Brooklyn is also without Tyler Bilodeau at Barclays Center. The risk is Charlotte missing Boswell, Knueppel and Williams, but that gap between the two numbers is the reason I'm laying -110.

2-unit New Mexico State Aggies at Sam Houston State Bearkats
Sam Houston State Bearkats ML +138
Sam Houston State at +138 is priced like a 42.8% winner, while ESPN's predictor leans toward New Mexico State at 55.8%, so the Bearkats' side asks for a real upset call. The risk is the 1-5 record and 1-4 last five, but with 70 degrees and light wind at kickoff against an Aggies team that's only 2-4, this is a game the home dog can steal.

1-unit Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers
Sacramento Kings ML +175
Sacramento at +175 sits right on the 36.5% the market gives them, and ESPN's 36.2% lines up with it, so the number is fair for a Clippers side missing Beal, Strus and Niederhauser at the Intuit Dome. The risk is Simmons, Cardwell and Raynaud all being out for the Kings.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.