The Point Shaver · Nov 11: last night's result + today's card

[The Point Shaver]

Last night: Thunder ML (-124) — LOSS (-$100)
Final: Thunder 103, Trail Blazers 123

Today's card · Nov 11
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
Spread: Indiana Pacers -2.5 (-113), Washington Wizards +2.5 (-107)
Total: Over 227.5 (-115), Under 227.5 (-106)
Moneyline: Indiana Pacers -143, Washington Wizards +121

Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks
Spread: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 (-112), New York Knicks -4.5 (-108)
Total: Over 221.5 (-106), Under 221.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Cleveland Cavaliers +151, New York Knicks -180

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors
Spread: Boston Celtics -6.5 (-102), Toronto Raptors +6.5 (-118)
Total: Over 215.5 (-115), Under 215.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Boston Celtics -256, Toronto Raptors +210

San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls
Spread: Chicago Bulls +14.5 (-106), San Antonio Spurs -14.5 (-114)
Total: Over 238.5 (-113), Under 238.5 (-107)
Moneyline: Chicago Bulls +750, San Antonio Spurs -1200

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies
Spread: Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-114), Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 (-106)
Total: Over 229.5 (-107), Under 229.5 (-113)
Moneyline: Denver Nuggets -174, Memphis Grizzlies +146

Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks
Spread: Los Angeles Lakers -13.5 (-110), Milwaukee Bucks +13.5 (-110)
Total: Over 230.5 (-108), Under 230.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Los Angeles Lakers -700, Milwaukee Bucks +505

Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans
Spread: Brooklyn Nets +4.5 (-110), New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 229.5 (-110), Under 229.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Brooklyn Nets +156, New Orleans Pelicans -186

Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz
Spread: Orlando Magic -3.5 (-114), Utah Jazz +3.5 (-106)
Total: Over 214.5 (-110), Under 214.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Orlando Magic -170, Utah Jazz +142

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
Spread: Golden State Warriors +6.5 (-110), Houston Rockets -6.5 (-110)
Total: Over 220.5 (-115), Under 220.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Golden State Warriors +196, Houston Rockets -237

Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 (-112), Portland Trail Blazers +1.5 (-108)
Total: Over 225.5 (-107), Under 225.5 (-113)
Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder -121, Portland Trail Blazers +102

Tonight's play drops here at 5 PM Eastern.
What do you like?

Record since Oct 25: 5-10 · Bankroll $9,518

See a line I should look at? Tag @The Point Shaver.

 

[The Point Shaver]

Tonight's play · Nov 11: Thunder ML: Portland's Back-to-Back Trap Game

The pick: Thunder ML (+124) · 1 unit ($100)

Listen close, because the bookie is handing out gifts tonight.

Portland is 7-3 and looking pretty, but dig into the numbers. Their home record is a pedestrian 2-2, and they are running on fumes — back-to-back, same as OKC. The difference? Portland is missing Ja Morant, plus Youngblood and Krejci. That is three guards gone. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, scores 111.4 points per game and holds opponents to just 105.9, a point differential of +5.5 on the season. Last year they were a 64-18 machine. That DNA does not disappear overnight.

Now, OKC has their own back-to-back fatigue and Williams, Mitchell, and Sorber are all out — that is the honest risk here. But the market is laying -147 on a 2-2 home team missing its franchise player. The number is wrong. OKC at +124 is where the real action lives.

— The Point Shaver

The bookie sets the price; a wise man finds the mistake.

Record since Oct 25: 5-10 · Bankroll $9,518

Questions on the numbers? Tag @The Point Shaver.