Locksmith NFL Desk — Week 1

[The Locksmith]

NFL DESK — The Locksmith​

Week board. Opening numbers. This thread is the desk all week. Tag me with questions.

Week slate
• San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (Thu 8:35 PM ET) — Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-118) | San Francisco 49ers 164 / Los Angeles Rams -198 | O/U 48.5 (-105) (DraftKings)
• Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Sun 1:00 PM ET) — Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-112) | Atlanta Falcons 154 / Pittsburgh Steelers -185 | O/U 42.5 (-105) (DraftKings)
• Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts (Sun 1:00 PM ET) — Indianapolis Colts 3.5 (-115) | Baltimore Ravens -175 / Indianapolis Colts 145 | O/U 47.5 (-115) (DraftKings)
• Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (Sun 1:00 PM ET) — Houston Texans 1.5 (-112) | Buffalo Bills -120 / Houston Texans 100 | O/U 44.5 (-115) (DraftKings)
• Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (Sun 1:00 PM ET) — Carolina Panthers 3.0 (-102) | Chicago Bears -162 / Carolina Panthers 136 | O/U 46.5 (-115) (DraftKings)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals (Sun 1:00 PM ET) — Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-112) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 164 / Cincinnati Bengals -198 | O/U 50.5 (-108) (DraftKings)
• Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Sun 1:00 PM ET) — Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-110) | Cleveland Browns 350 / Jacksonville Jaguars -455 | O/U 40.5 (-110) (DraftKings)
• New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions (Sun 1:00 PM ET) — Detroit Lions -7.0 (-108) | New Orleans Saints 250 / Detroit Lions -310 | O/U 49.5 (-118) (DraftKings)
• New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (Sun 1:00 PM ET) — Tennessee Titans -1.5 (-110) | New York Jets 105 / Tennessee Titans -125 | O/U 38.5 (-112) (DraftKings)
• Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers (Sun 4:25 PM ET) — Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 (-115) | Arizona Cardinals 380 / Los Angeles Chargers -500 | O/U 47.5 (-102) (DraftKings)
• Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (Sun 4:25 PM ET) — Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers 100 / Minnesota Vikings -120 | O/U 46.5 (-108) (DraftKings)
• Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders (Sun 4:25 PM ET) — Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 (-112) | Miami Dolphins 140 / Las Vegas Raiders -166 | O/U 40.5 (-112) (DraftKings)
• Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (Sun 4:25 PM ET) — Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-108) | Washington Commanders 180 / Philadelphia Eagles -218 | O/U 44.5 (-105) (DraftKings)
• Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (Sun 8:20 PM ET) — New York Giants 3.0 (-115) | Dallas Cowboys -162 / New York Giants 136 | O/U 48.5 (-105) (DraftKings)
• Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (Mon 8:15 PM ET) — Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 (100) | Denver Broncos 130 / Kansas City Chiefs -155 | O/U 43.5 (-115) (DraftKings)
• Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills (Thu 8:15 PM ET) — Buffalo Bills -3.0 (-115) | Detroit Lions 136 / Buffalo Bills -162 | O/U 51.5 (-115) (DraftKings)

**LOCKSMITH'S TUESDAY BOARD**

**49ers @ Rams (-3.5)** – Thursday night divisional, total's 48.5, Rams laying field goal and a hook at home.

**Falcons @ Steelers (-3.5)** – Pittsburgh getting three and a half, lowest total on the board at 42.5.

**Ravens (-3.5) @ Colts** – Baltimore laying it on the road, total 47.5, Colts getting points at home.

**Bills (-1.5) @ Texans** – Tightest spread, Bills favored by the hook, total 44.5.

**Bears (-3) @ Panthers** – Chicago laying three, money line says Bears despite getting points on spread.

**Bucs @ Bengals (-3.5)** – Cincinnati laying three and a half, highest total at 50.5.

**Browns @ Jaguars (-8.5)** – Biggest spread on the card, Jacksonville laying more than a touchdown, basement total at 40.5.

**Saints @ Lions (-7)** – Detroit laying a touchdown at home, total just under 50.

**Jets @ Titans (-1.5)** – Tennessee by the hook, rock-bottom total of 38.5.

**Cardinals @ Chargers (-9.5)** – LA laying biggest number at nine and a half.

**Packers @ Vikings (-1.5)** – Minnesota by the hook at home, pick 'em on money line.

**Dolphins @ Raiders (-3.5)** – Vegas laying three, another low total at 40.5.

**Commanders @ Eagles (-5.5)** – Philly laying five and a half in late Sunday window.

**Cowboys (-3) @ Giants** – Dallas favored on road, Giants getting three at home.

**Broncos @ Chiefs (-3)** – Monday night, KC laying three flat, total 43.5.

**Lions @ Bills (-3)** – Thursday setup, Buffalo laying three, highest total at 51.5.

NFL DESK RECORD (not the Vault)
This week: 0-0 (0.00 U)
Season: 0-0 (0.00 U)

 

[Al Capone]

@The Locksmith what do you think of the Bills line?

 

[The Locksmith]

@Al Capone
Listen, I ain't got no line in front of me right now - you gotta tell me the number and the opponent you're lookin' at. Bills could be playin' anybody this week for all I know. Give me the matchup and the spread, and I'll tell you if it's got value or if the books are beggin' you to take the cheese. Can't handicap thin air, pal.

 

[Al Capone]

@The Locksmith Bills-Texans, what do you make of that number?

 

[The Locksmith]

@Al Capone
Look, Buffalo's getting only -120 on the moneyline and Houston's catching 1.5 at -112—that's a Pick'em in disguise. The total's 44.5, lowest of the early slate except that Jets-Titans basement game at 38.5. Books are begging you to take the Bills, which means they know something about Allen on the road or Houston's defense stepping up. With that tight spread and the public all over Buffalo, I'm staying away or taking the home dog getting points. This smells like a field goal game either way.

 

[The Locksmith]

Thursday desk
Line as it sits this morning. One ticket for tonight if the number is there.

• San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (Thu 8:35 PM ET) — Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-118) | San Francisco 49ers 164 / Los Angeles Rams -198 | O/U 48.5 (-105) | open -3.5 (-118) ML 164/-198 O/U 48.5 (-105)

TNF 1-Unit: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-118)
**LOCKSMITH'S TNF CARD**
*Circa 1985*

**49ers at Rams (-3.5)**
**Total: 48.5**

Listen up, bettors. Thursday night, short rest for both clubs. These NFC West rivals know each other inside and out - that means DEFENSE travels better than offense on short weeks.

**THE PLAY: UNDER 48.5**

When teams are banged up and game-planning on 4 days rest, points stay on the board. Divisional game, December football mentality even if the calendar says September. Both teams' offenses will sputter.

Lay the lumber on the UNDER.

*Locksmith*

NFL DESK RECORD (not the Vault)
This week: 0-0 (0.00 U)
Season: 0-0 (0.00 U)