- May 21, 2026
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The fight over whether prediction markets involving sports are gambling has landed, as it inevitably would, in the U.S. Supreme Court. And the NFL is getting involved.
Via Contessa Brewer of CNBC, the NFL has submitted a "friend of the court" brief in the fight between Kalshi and New Jersey. The NFL argues that prediction markets are gambling, and that they should be subject to regulation by the states.
The battle focuses on the fact that prediction markets fall within the exclusive province of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, a federal agency. If so, prediction markets can be offered everywhere, with the states having no power to impose rules. If not, any prediction-market company would be required to follow the relevant gambling laws in each state. (And, obviously, they wouldn't be able to offer sports-related markets in states where gambling is not yet legalized.)
The league isn't opposing prediction markets, in the way the NFL strongly opposed legalized sports betting (until the league did a 180, after realizing how much money it could make).
Said the NFL in a statement to CNBC: “Neither the CFTC nor the prediction market companies themselves — despite our persistent urging — have banned categories of bets susceptible to manipulation or set a 21 age limit."
Here's the basic reality. If the prediction markets win, the NFL will change its tune in the same way it did when the Supreme Court opened the floodgates for sports betting in 2018.
The playbook is simple. Fight it like hell and, if/when you lose, open the pockets and grab the cash.
Via Contessa Brewer of CNBC, the NFL has submitted a "friend of the court" brief in the fight between Kalshi and New Jersey. The NFL argues that prediction markets are gambling, and that they should be subject to regulation by the states.
The battle focuses on the fact that prediction markets fall within the exclusive province of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, a federal agency. If so, prediction markets can be offered everywhere, with the states having no power to impose rules. If not, any prediction-market company would be required to follow the relevant gambling laws in each state. (And, obviously, they wouldn't be able to offer sports-related markets in states where gambling is not yet legalized.)
The league isn't opposing prediction markets, in the way the NFL strongly opposed legalized sports betting (until the league did a 180, after realizing how much money it could make).
Said the NFL in a statement to CNBC: “Neither the CFTC nor the prediction market companies themselves — despite our persistent urging — have banned categories of bets susceptible to manipulation or set a 21 age limit."
Here's the basic reality. If the prediction markets win, the NFL will change its tune in the same way it did when the Supreme Court opened the floodgates for sports betting in 2018.
The playbook is simple. Fight it like hell and, if/when you lose, open the pockets and grab the cash.