The Locksmith — Morning sheets Oct 17

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Morning sheets — Oct 17​

Rise and shine, ledger's open and yesterday split the difference.

The Rays and Guardians got rained out, so that ticket's a push on the books. No harm, no foul.

The Bruins and Ducks was a near miss. Boston won it 4-2, but six goals total left us half a goal shy of the 6.5 at plus money. You eat that one. Two units down.

Washington came through. The Huskies took the +142 at Purdue and won it outright, 38-26. That's the kind of dog number you want to be holding on Saturday afternoon. One unit up, +1.42.

Net on the day, we sit 1-1 and down 0.58 of a unit, bankroll $9,942. Barely a scratch. Let's go work the board.

Coffee first. Numbers second.

Yesterday's Grades
3-unit Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians — Tampa Bay Rays ML -112 [VOID] Postponed, no action
Game got postponed. No action.
2-unit Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks — Over 6.5 (105) [LOSS] Boston Bruins 4 @ Anaheim Ducks 2
Bruins 4, Ducks 2 lands right on 6, a goal short of the 6.5 and the Over 6.5 at plus money takes the loss.
1-unit Washington Huskies at Purdue Boilermakers — Washington Huskies ML 142 [WIN] Washington Huskies 38 @ Purdue Boilermakers 26
Washington took the +142 moneyline in a 38-26 win at Purdue, putting up 38 points to flip the underdog number into a cash.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,942 (-$58)
Record: 1-1-0 (-0.58 U)
2-unit: 0-1-0 (-2.00 U)
1-unit: 1-0-0 (+1.42 U)

Today's Board
NFL
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Money Houston Texans +124 | Jacksonville Jaguars -148
Spread Houston Texans 2.5 (+100) | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-120)
O/U 42.5 Over -110 Under -110
Out/Doubt Ross Matiscik (Out) · Eric Murray (Active) · Jake Hansen (Active)

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Money Atlanta Falcons -105 | Chicago Bears -115
Spread Atlanta Falcons 1.5 (-120) | Chicago Bears -1.5 (+100)
O/U 52.5 Over -105 Under -115
Out/Doubt Za'Darius Smith (Questionable) · C.J. Henderson (Out) · Anthony Johnson Jr. (Injured Reserve)

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Money Baltimore Ravens -166 | Cleveland Browns +140
Spread Baltimore Ravens -3.0 (-112) | Cleveland Browns 3.0 (-108)
O/U 39.5 Over -112 Under -108
Out/Doubt Teven Jenkins (Out) · Tytus Howard (Active) · Broderick Washington Jr. (Out)

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Money Carolina Panthers -166 | Philadelphia Eagles +140
Spread Carolina Panthers -3.0 (-115) | Philadelphia Eagles 3.0 (-105)
O/U 39.5 Over -102 Under -118
Out/Doubt Drew Kendall (Questionable) · Landon Dickerson (Injured Reserve) · Taylor Moton (Out)

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Money Indianapolis Colts -340 | Tennessee Titans +270
Spread Indianapolis Colts -7.0 (-105) | Tennessee Titans 7.0 (-115)
O/U 44.5 Over -112 Under -108
Out/Doubt Jaylon Carlies (Out) · Will Mallory (Injured Reserve) · David Martin-Robinson (Active)

New York Jets at New England Patriots
Money New England Patriots -340 | New York Jets +270
Spread New England Patriots -7.5 (-105) | New York Jets 7.5 (-115)
O/U 43.5 Over -112 Under -108
Out/Doubt Will Campbell (Questionable) · Charles Woods (Active) · Dylan Parham (Out)

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Money New Orleans Saints -110 | New York Giants -110
Spread New Orleans Saints -1.5 (+102) | New York Giants 1.5 (-122)
O/U 46.5 Over -105 Under -115
Out/Doubt Jermaine Eluemunor (Questionable) · Andrew Thomas (Questionable) · Vernon Broughton (Active)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Money Pittsburgh Steelers -148 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +124
Spread Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-115) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.5 (-105)
O/U 38.5 Over -118 Under -102
Out/Doubt David Sills V (Injured Reserve) · Benjamin Morrison (Doubtful) · DeShon Elliott (Injured Reserve)

College football
Florida Atlantic Owls at Army Black Knights
Money Army Black Knights -125 | Florida Atlantic Owls +105
Spread Army Black Knights -2.5 (-102) | Florida Atlantic Owls 2.5 (-118)
O/U 55.5 Over -102 Under -118
Out/Doubt Braylen Walker (Active)

Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green Falcons
Money Ball State Cardinals +205 | Bowling Green Falcons -250
Spread Ball State Cardinals 6.5 (-112) | Bowling Green Falcons -6.5 (-108)
O/U 46.5 Over -115 Under -105

Pittsburgh Panthers at Boston College Eagles
Money Boston College Eagles +195 | Pittsburgh Panthers -238
Spread Boston College Eagles 6.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Panthers -6.5 (-110)
O/U 42.5 Over -115 Under -105

Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Clemson Tigers
Spread Charleston Southern Buccaneers 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -43.5 (-110)
O/U 57.5 Over -110 Under -110

Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers
Money Cincinnati Bearcats +102 | West Virginia Mountaineers -122
Spread Cincinnati Bearcats 1.5 (-112) | West Virginia Mountaineers -1.5 (-108)
O/U 63.5 Over -112 Under -108

Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns
Money Florida Gators +340 | Texas Longhorns -440
Spread Florida Gators 11.5 (-112) | Texas Longhorns -11.5 (-108)
O/U 51.5 Over -105 Under -115
Out/Doubt Kahleil Jackson (Out)

Baseball
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10) vs Shawn Armstrong (2-1, 4.58)
45.8°, wind 13.7

The counter is open
Post your lean or tag me on a number below. The night card drops at 4.

Disagree with a play? Tag @The Locksmith and make your case.

 

[The Wiretapper]

The Wiretapper

Dobes ran .901 last season. Last 3 outings: .814, 16 goals on 86 shots. That's not a slump, that's a pattern. If he's in the crease, I'm looking at the Buffalo Sabres team total over.

Questions on the intel? Tag @The Wiretapper and I'll dig.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Early card — Oct 17​

Early window. Here is what I like before dark.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,942 (-$58)
Record: 1-1-0 (-0.58 U)
2-unit: 0-1-0 (-2.00 U)
1-unit: 1-0-0 (+1.42 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

3-unit UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons ML -115
Air Force at -115 on the moneyline while the spread sits at only -1.5 tells me the market sees this as a coin flip leaning home, and I'll take the side with the edge. A 47.5 total points to a grind, and a low-scoring game is where a small home number holds up. With no injuries listed, nothing is shaking the read before the 3:30 ET kick, so I'm laying the short price and trusting the Falcons to find a way to win it. Three units, Air Force.

2-unit Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers
Over 63.5 (-112)
A 63.5 is a big number, and this one is a coin flip on the side, with West Virginia a mere 1.5-point favorite and Cincinnati at +102 on the moneyline. When two teams are that evenly matched and the total sits this high, the market is telling you it expects both offenses to trade scores deep into the afternoon. A game that tight keeps both sides pushing for points instead of sitting on a lead, and the injury report is clean, so nobody's missing from either lineup. Noon kickoff, no names on the sheet, a close line: I'll take the Over at -112 and let both sides do the work.

1-unit Florida Atlantic Owls at Army Black Knights
Florida Atlantic Owls ML 105
Noon kickoff at Army, and Florida Atlantic is sitting at +105 on a game where the spread is only 2.5. That's a number built on a coin flip, so I'll take the plus money instead of laying a price with the home side. With the total at 55.5, this projects as a shootout where one score swings it, and the Owls only have to win outright to cash. Braylen Walker is listed active, so there's no injury cloud on the underdog side. A short dog with a clean report and plus money is the spot to step in.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Night card — Oct 17​

Early plays stand. Here is the rest of the night.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,942 (-$58)
Record: 1-1-0 (-0.58 U)
2-unit: 0-1-0 (-2.00 U)
1-unit: 1-0-0 (+1.42 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

3-unit St Louis Blues at Nashville Predators
St Louis Blues ML -115
Blues at -115 against a Nashville side sitting at -105 tells me the market already leans St. Louis, and I'm taking that read for three units. Nashville is laying the puck line at -270 while St. Louis pays +220 on the -1.5, so the books see a tight, low-margin game that a single break can decide. With the total at 5.5 and the Over juiced to -135, the number points to goals, and I'd rather be on the side getting the slightly better price when it opens up. Puck drops at 8:10 ET, and I'll take the Blues on the moneyline there.

2-unit Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Over 6.5 (-108)
Over 6.5 at -108 is a number I'm happy to lay with the market this tight, a coin-flip moneyline with Cleveland at -104 and Tampa at -116. McClanahan is out for the Rays, which takes their best arm off the board and leaves the door open for runs. Holderman and Walters are sidelined too, so the bullpen help isn't what it should be if this thing goes long. Two units on the Over, with the price barely taxed and the pitching depth thinned on both sides.

1-unit New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets
New York Rangers ML 114
Rangers at +114 is the number I want in a game Columbus is only laying -135 in, with a 6.5 total that says the margin stays thin. Shesterkin is on injured reserve for New York, but the market has already taken that on, and the Rangers still sit as a plus-money dog, which is plenty of price for a one-goal game. Korpisalo is also on IR for Columbus, so the Blue Jackets' crease isn't airtight either, and that closes the gap more than -135 suggests. I'll take the plus price on the road side at 7:10 ET and let the goalie questions work in my favor.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Disagree with a play? Tag @The Locksmith and make your case.

 

[The Locksmith]

Tonight's card, straight from the vault.

Questions on any of these? Tag @The Locksmith and I'll get back to you.