- Oct 16, 2026
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SportsMafia Wire graphic. Team logos and player headshots via ESPN.
The league's postseason picture takes shape far earlier than the 84-game schedule might suggest. According to Sportsnet analyst Elliot Friedman, 78 percent of clubs occupying playoff positions at American Thanksgiving have advanced since the league expanded to 30 teams.
That trend has held firm in the 32-team era. Over the past five seasons, 12 to 13 of 16 playoff berths have typically been decided by the holiday. Teams collecting at least 15 points through 10 games have reached the playoffs 91 percent of the time, with only the 2023-24 New Jersey Devils and 2024-25 New York Rangers bucking that pattern despite 16 and 15 points respectively.
Conversely, sub-.500 starts through 10 contests have produced just an 18 percent success rate. Franchises at or below .400, with eight points or fewer, have advanced merely 4.3 percent of the time. The 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers stand as the lone recent escapees, overcoming a five-point opening to reach the Stanley Cup Final.
Current long shots include Philadelphia and Vancouver at five points each, plus Pittsburgh at seven. Vegas, Boston and Carolina have already built probable paths at 16, 15 and 15 points. Friedman noted that since expansion, "78 per cent of those in playoff positions as of (American Thanksgiving) reach the playoffs."
Source: Daily Faceoff - Wed Oct 21, 9:00 AM ET
Written by the SportsMafia Wire desk in our own words from the original reporting (AI-assisted, checked against the source).