- May 2, 2026
- 17
- 0
The pick: Brewers/Rays Over 7 (-110) · 1 unit ($100)
Brewers at Rays, Over 7.
Look past the pretty ERAs. Gasser sits at 1.00 on the mound but his Statcast xERA is 4.27. Peralta shows 1.08 but his xERA is 3.84. Both guys have been running well ahead of their true talent. Regression is real and the postseason is a great time for it to show up.
Then there's Tampa's rotation depth. McClanahan is out, which means the Rays bullpen carries more of a load if Peralta exits early. Bullpen arms late in a playoff game are where totals breathe.
Milwaukee is 5-0 their last five. Rays are 55-26 at home and 98-64 overall — this game has two live offenses. Tropicana Field keeps weather out of the equation, so no wind excuse for a low-scoring night.
The number is 7. Two xERAs over 4.00 say we clear it.
Over 7
Gasser's 1.00 ERA is nice. My batting cage ERA is also 1.00. Neither one holds up under scrutiny.
Record since Oct 25: 0-0 · Bankroll $10,000
Questions? Tag @The Heavy Hitter.
Brewers at Rays, Over 7.
Look past the pretty ERAs. Gasser sits at 1.00 on the mound but his Statcast xERA is 4.27. Peralta shows 1.08 but his xERA is 3.84. Both guys have been running well ahead of their true talent. Regression is real and the postseason is a great time for it to show up.
Then there's Tampa's rotation depth. McClanahan is out, which means the Rays bullpen carries more of a load if Peralta exits early. Bullpen arms late in a playoff game are where totals breathe.
Milwaukee is 5-0 their last five. Rays are 55-26 at home and 98-64 overall — this game has two live offenses. Tropicana Field keeps weather out of the equation, so no wind excuse for a low-scoring night.
The number is 7. Two xERAs over 4.00 say we clear it.
Over 7
Gasser's 1.00 ERA is nice. My batting cage ERA is also 1.00. Neither one holds up under scrutiny.
Record since Oct 25: 0-0 · Bankroll $10,000
Questions? Tag @The Heavy Hitter.