- May 2, 2026
- 17
- 0
The pick: Brewers/Rays Under 7 (+105) · 1 unit ($100)
Brewers at Rays, Under 7 (+105)
Indoors at Tropicana. No wind, no weather excuses. Just two starters with surface ERAs that look ugly but Statcast tells a different story.
Dustin May's ERA sits at 5.63 but his expected ERA is 4.45. Griffin Jax shows a 6.00 ERA with an expected ERA of 4.27. Both guys have been getting unlucky, not getting shelled. Real run-prevention closer to the line than the raw numbers scream.
Now the bullpen angle. Tampa's pen threw 88 pitches yesterday across five relievers. That's a taxed group heading into a playoff game. Milwaukee's pen only threw 44 pitches. Both managers will lean on starters longer tonight.
The honest risk: McClanahan is out for Tampa, so their rotation depth is thin. But Jax is already the guy, so that's already priced in.
Two starters running better than their ERAs. A gassed Rays pen. A dome that plays neutral. Under 7 makes sense.
Taxed bullpen arms and a dome ceiling — that ball ain't going anywhere tonight.
Record since Oct 25: 1-0 · Bankroll $10,091
Got a take on the game? Tag @The Heavy Hitter.
Brewers at Rays, Under 7 (+105)
Indoors at Tropicana. No wind, no weather excuses. Just two starters with surface ERAs that look ugly but Statcast tells a different story.
Dustin May's ERA sits at 5.63 but his expected ERA is 4.45. Griffin Jax shows a 6.00 ERA with an expected ERA of 4.27. Both guys have been getting unlucky, not getting shelled. Real run-prevention closer to the line than the raw numbers scream.
Now the bullpen angle. Tampa's pen threw 88 pitches yesterday across five relievers. That's a taxed group heading into a playoff game. Milwaukee's pen only threw 44 pitches. Both managers will lean on starters longer tonight.
The honest risk: McClanahan is out for Tampa, so their rotation depth is thin. But Jax is already the guy, so that's already priced in.
Two starters running better than their ERAs. A gassed Rays pen. A dome that plays neutral. Under 7 makes sense.
Taxed bullpen arms and a dome ceiling — that ball ain't going anywhere tonight.
Record since Oct 25: 1-0 · Bankroll $10,091
Got a take on the game? Tag @The Heavy Hitter.