The Locksmith — Morning sheets Nov 04

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Morning sheets — Nov 04​

Tuesday went one for three, and the two losses sting. Anaheim cashed on the Ducks moneyline at -152 in a 5-4 squeaker over Vancouver. Then the big chalk ran into big numbers. Kentucky won 85-57 but laid 33.5, and Virginia won 89-60 against a 31.5 stick. Both teams won going away and we still got no ticket for it. Right side of the game, wrong side of the number.

The vault sits at $8,973, 11-19 since Oct 25. The one-unit tickets are 7-12 in that stretch. Short list today, and we'll see if the Jaguars-Ravens number holds up.

Coffee first. Numbers second.

Yesterday's Grades
1-unit Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks — Anaheim Ducks ML -152 [WIN] Anaheim Ducks 5 @ Vancouver Canucks 4
Anaheim held off Vancouver 5-4 in a tight one, and the Ducks moneyline at -152 cashed for the full unit.
1-unit Manhattan Jaspers at Kentucky Wildcats — Kentucky Wildcats -33.5 (-105) [LOSS] Manhattan Jaspers 57 @ Kentucky Wildcats 85
Kentucky won 85-57, a 28-point margin that fell five and a half points short of the 33.5 we laid, so the Wildcats took the game but not the number.
1-unit Drexel Dragons at Virginia Cavaliers — Virginia Cavaliers -31.5 (-108) [LOSS] Drexel Dragons 60 @ Virginia Cavaliers 89
Virginia won 89-60 but the 29-point margin fell two and a half short of the 31.5 we laid, so the ticket goes down.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $8,973 (-$1,027)
Record since Oct 25: 11-19-0 (-10.27 U)
3-unit: 1-1-0 (-1.19 U)
2-unit: 3-6-0 (-4.54 U)
1-unit: 7-12-0 (-4.54 U)

Today's Board
NFL
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Money Baltimore Ravens +390 | Jacksonville Jaguars -520
Spread Baltimore Ravens 10.0 (-112) | Jacksonville Jaguars -10.0 (-108)
O/U 40.5 Over -108 Under -112
Out/Doubt Tyler Huntley (Doubtful)

College football
Ball State Cardinals at UMass Minutemen
Money Ball State Cardinals +142 | UMass Minutemen -170
Spread Ball State Cardinals 3.5 (-115) | UMass Minutemen -3.5 (-105)
O/U 49.5 Over -112 Under -108

Toledo Rockets at Sacramento State Hornets
Money Sacramento State Hornets +1300 | Toledo Rockets -2800
Spread Sacramento State Hornets 25.5 (-112) | Toledo Rockets -25.5 (-108)
O/U 52.5 Over -115 Under -105

Central Michigan Chippewas at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Money Central Michigan Chippewas -102 | Eastern Michigan Eagles -118
Spread Central Michigan Chippewas 1.5 (-115) | Eastern Michigan Eagles -1.5 (-105)
O/U 44.5 Over -108 Under -112

UTSA Roadrunners at Florida Atlantic Owls
Money Florida Atlantic Owls +215 | UTSA Roadrunners -265
Spread Florida Atlantic Owls 7.0 (-115) | UTSA Roadrunners -7.0 (-105)
O/U 72.5 Over -115 Under -105

James Madison Dukes at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Money James Madison Dukes -650 | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +470
Spread James Madison Dukes -14.5 (-108) | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 14.5 (-112)
O/U 58.5 Over -105 Under -115

Baseball
No baseball on the board.

The counter is open
Post your lean or tag me on a number below. The night card drops at 4.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Early card — Nov 04​

Vault bank
Bankroll: $8,973 (-$1,027)
Record since Oct 25: 11-19-0 (-10.27 U)
3-unit: 1-1-0 (-1.19 U)
2-unit: 3-6-0 (-4.54 U)
1-unit: 7-12-0 (-4.54 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

The games I like start later. First one is Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, 7:00 PM ET. Back at 4.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Disagree with a play? Tag @The Locksmith and make your case.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Night card — Nov 04​

Night card. Here is where the money goes.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $8,973 (-$1,027)
Record since Oct 25: 11-19-0 (-10.27 U)
3-unit: 1-1-0 (-1.19 U)
2-unit: 3-6-0 (-4.54 U)
1-unit: 7-12-0 (-4.54 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

1-unit Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers ML +190
Clippers at +190 with Giannis listed day-to-day for Miami, and the Heat are only 1-2 on the road at 2-5 overall. The risk is Ingram, Beal and Niederhauser all being out, but the market still gives LA a 34.4% shot at home in the Intuit Dome.

1-unit Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans
Utah Jazz ML +170
Jazz at +170 implies a bigger shot than the 35.8% the market gives them, and ESPN has this at 46.9 for Utah, with Pelicans missing Jordan Poole and Yves Missi and Trey Murphy III day-to-day. The risk is Utah's 0-5 stretch and three starters out, Nurkic and Jackson among them.

1-unit Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken
Seattle Kraken ML -130
Seattle at -130 sits right with the 54.9% market read, and Calgary is 2-5-0 on the road with a -15 goal differential while missing Zary. Wolf's .862 save percentage against Daccord at home makes the Kraken the side; the only risk is Douglas being day-to-day.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.