The Locksmith — Morning sheets Nov 05

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Morning sheets — Nov 05​

Rough Wednesday, no sugarcoating it. Two of three went down, and the Clippers one hurts most: +190 and Miami by a single point, 117-116. Utah hung around in New Orleans and still fell 120-113. Seattle at -130 got the job done, 2-1 over Calgary, so we didn't leave empty-handed.

Vault is $8,850, down $1,150, with the book at 12-21 since Oct 25. Not where we want to be, and it only gets fixed one number at a time.

Today's board is up. Lines are posted and I'm working them.

Coffee first. Numbers second.

Yesterday's Grades
1-unit Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers — Los Angeles Clippers ML +190 [LOSS] Miami Heat 117 @ LA Clippers 116
The Clippers at +190 came up one point short, 117-116 in Miami's favor, a loss that stung as much as any this week.
1-unit Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans — Utah Jazz ML +170 [LOSS] Utah Jazz 113 @ New Orleans Pelicans 120
Utah hung around to the wire but fell seven short in New Orleans, 120-113, and the +170 moneyline never cashed.
1-unit Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken — Seattle Kraken ML -130 [WIN] Calgary Flames 1 @ Seattle Kraken 2
Seattle held on 2-1 at home, and the Kraken moneyline at -130 cashed.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $8,850 (-$1,150)
Record since Oct 25: 12-21-0 (-11.50 U)
3-unit: 1-1-0 (-1.19 U)
2-unit: 3-6-0 (-4.54 U)
1-unit: 8-14-0 (-5.77 U)

Today's Board
NFL
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Money Baltimore Ravens +400 | Jacksonville Jaguars -535
Spread Baltimore Ravens 10.0 (-112) | Jacksonville Jaguars -10.0 (-108)
O/U 39.5 Over -112 Under -108
Out/Doubt Jaylinn Hawkins (Out) · Tyler Huntley (Out)

College football
UTSA Roadrunners at Florida Atlantic Owls
Money Florida Atlantic Owls +215 | UTSA Roadrunners -265
Spread Florida Atlantic Owls 7.0 (-115) | UTSA Roadrunners -7.0 (-105)
O/U 72.5 Over -115 Under -105

James Madison Dukes at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Money James Madison Dukes -650 | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +470
Spread James Madison Dukes -14.5 (-108) | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 14.5 (-112)
O/U 57.5 Over -110 Under -110

Virginia Tech Hokies at SMU Mustangs
Money SMU Mustangs -225 | Virginia Tech Hokies +185
Spread SMU Mustangs -6.0 (-110) | Virginia Tech Hokies 6.0 (-110)
O/U 56.5 Over -108 Under -112

South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates
Money East Carolina Pirates -135 | South Florida Bulls +114
Spread East Carolina Pirates -2.5 (-110) | South Florida Bulls 2.5 (-110)
O/U 39.5 Over -108 Under -112

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Money Illinois Fighting Illini +164 | Nebraska Cornhuskers -198
Spread Illinois Fighting Illini 4.5 (-108) | Nebraska Cornhuskers -4.5 (-112)
O/U 49.5 Over -115 Under -105

New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack
Money Nevada Wolf Pack +310 | New Mexico Lobos -395
Spread Nevada Wolf Pack 10.0 (-110) | New Mexico Lobos -10.0 (-110)
O/U 36.5 Over -120 Under +100

Baseball
No baseball on the board.

The counter is open
Post your lean or tag me on a number below. The night card drops at 4.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Early card — Nov 05​

Vault bank
Bankroll: $8,850 (-$1,150)
Record since Oct 25: 12-21-0 (-11.50 U)
3-unit: 1-1-0 (-1.19 U)
2-unit: 3-6-0 (-4.54 U)
1-unit: 8-14-0 (-5.77 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

The games I like start later. First one is Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets, 7:10 PM ET. Back at 4.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Disagree with a play? Tag @The Locksmith and make your case.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Night card — Nov 05​

Lights are on. Here is tonight's work.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $8,850 (-$1,150)
Record since Oct 25: 12-21-0 (-11.50 U)
3-unit: 1-1-0 (-1.19 U)
2-unit: 3-6-0 (-4.54 U)
1-unit: 8-14-0 (-5.77 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

2-unit Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Miami Heat 1st half ML +170
ESPN's predictor gives Miami 44.4% while the moneyline market has Golden State at 61.7%, and Golden State is without Porzingis, Moody and Santos. Miami's 2-2 on the road and 3-2 over its last five make +170 for the first half worth a look, though the back-to-back is the risk.

3-unit Utah Mammoth at Montréal Canadiens
Utah Mammoth ML -114
Utah at -114 gets a boost with Montréal's Mike Matheson out and Jakub Dobes sitting on a .853 save percentage, while the Mammoth are 6-4-0 on the road. The market makes them 53.0% to win, and the risk is Kailer Yamamoto being day-to-day.

1-unit Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns
Orlando Magic ML +105
Phoenix is on the second night of a back-to-back, without Mark Williams, and sits 1-5 with a 1-4 last five, while ESPN's predictor has Orlando at 50.5% and the Magic are 2-1 on the road. The risk is Orlando missing Banchero, Suggs and Isaac, but +105 still reads as a coin flip.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.