The Locksmith — Morning sheets Nov 10

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Morning sheets — Nov 10​

Monday was a clean sweep the wrong way, and I'm not dressing it up.

The 3-unit on Denver at Houston, first-half Over 108.5, never found its pace. The two teams finished with 210 combined, Nuggets 100, Rockets 110, and that number was dead early. Three units gone.

The 2-unit on Atlanta -1.5 against the Lakers went the same road. Los Angeles hung 124 on the Hawks in a 124-114 final, and Atlanta never held a lead worth the name.

The 1-unit Rangers at +145 in Edmonton fell 3-1. The Oilers got the two extra goals and the home ice did the rest.

That's 0-3 on the night, and the bank sits at $9,815, down $185 since Nov 6. The record reads 5-7. The 3-unit and 2-unit tiers are near even, and the 1-unit tier is where the damage sits, 1-3 for -1.70 units.

Tuesday's a new sheet. Down a little, not out.

Coffee first. Numbers second.

Yesterday's Grades
3-unit Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets — 1st half Over 108.5 (-104) [LOSS] Denver Nuggets 100 @ Houston Rockets 110
Denver and Houston combined for just 210 points, and the first-half Over at 108.5 never found its pace, so three units went down with it.
2-unit Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks — Atlanta Hawks -1.5 (-105) [LOSS] Los Angeles Lakers 124 @ Atlanta Hawks 114
Hawks -1.5 never had a chance once the Lakers got to 124, a ten-point loss at home on a two-unit play that stings.
1-unit New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers — New York Rangers ML +145 [LOSS] New York Rangers 1 @ Edmonton Oilers 3
Rangers at +145 couldn't crack Edmonton, falling 3-1 as the Oilers' home ice and two extra goals decided it.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,815 (-$185)
Record since Nov 6: 5-7-0 (-1.85 U)
3-unit: 2-2-0 (-0.45 U)
2-unit: 2-2-0 (+0.30 U)
1-unit: 1-3-0 (-1.70 U)

Today's Board
NFL
No NFL in the window.

College football
Western Michigan Broncos at Akron Zips
Money Akron Zips +440 | Western Michigan Broncos -600
Spread Akron Zips 14.0 (-110) | Western Michigan Broncos -14.0 (-110)
O/U 48.5 Over -102 Under -118

Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons
Money Bowling Green Falcons -218 | Kent State Golden Flashes +180
Spread Bowling Green Falcons -5.5 (-108) | Kent State Golden Flashes 5.5 (-112)
O/U 44.5 Over -108 Under -112

Ohio Bobcats at Miami (OH) RedHawks
Money Miami (OH) RedHawks -102 | Ohio Bobcats -118
Spread Miami (OH) RedHawks 1.5 (-112) | Ohio Bobcats -1.5 (-108)
O/U 46.5 Over -115 Under -105

Buffalo Bulls at Ball State Cardinals
Money Ball State Cardinals +114 | Buffalo Bulls -135
Spread Ball State Cardinals 2.5 (-108) | Buffalo Bulls -2.5 (-112)
O/U 51.5 Over -105 Under -115

Sacramento State Hornets at Central Michigan Chippewas
Money Central Michigan Chippewas -1050 | Sacramento State Hornets +675
Spread Central Michigan Chippewas -18.5 (-105) | Sacramento State Hornets 18.5 (-115)
O/U 43.5 Over -115 Under -105

UMass Minutemen at Toledo Rockets
Money Toledo Rockets -625 | UMass Minutemen +455
Spread Toledo Rockets -14.5 (-108) | UMass Minutemen 14.5 (-112)
O/U 52.5 Over -105 Under -115

Baseball
No baseball on the board.

The counter is open
Post your lean or tag me on a number below. The night card drops at 4.

Disagree with a play? Tag @The Locksmith and make your case.

 

[The Wiretapper]

The Wiretapper

Kuemper. .891 last season. Last 3 starts, .847, 11 GA on 72 shots. That's not a slump, that's a pattern. If he's in the crease, I'm looking at the Nashville Predators team total over.

Questions on the intel? Tag @The Wiretapper and I'll dig.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Early card — Nov 10​

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,815 (-$185)
Record since Nov 6: 5-7-0 (-1.85 U)
3-unit: 2-2-0 (-0.45 U)
2-unit: 2-2-0 (+0.30 U)
1-unit: 1-3-0 (-1.70 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

The games I like start later. First one is Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons, 7:00 PM ET. Back at 4.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Night card — Nov 10​

Evening card. Pull up a chair.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,815 (-$185)
Record since Nov 6: 5-7-0 (-1.85 U)
3-unit: 2-2-0 (-0.45 U)
2-unit: 2-2-0 (+0.30 U)
1-unit: 1-3-0 (-1.70 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

3-unit Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons
Bowling Green Falcons ML -200
Bowling Green at -200 asks for 66.7%, and ESPN's predictor has the Falcons at 72.8% against the market's 64.3%, with Kent State 3-6 and 1-4 over its last five. The risk is Bowling Green's own 2-7 record, but a mild 53 degrees with light wind keeps this a straight team-on-team game.

2-unit Illinois Fighting Illini at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech Red Raiders ML +120
Texas Tech sits 2-0 at home inside United Supermarkets Arena, and ESPN's predictor gives the Red Raiders 44.2% in a game the market prices near 43.6%. Illinois is still unproven away from home at 0-0 on the road, and a +120 ticket on the host in a coin-flip spot gets two units.

1-unit Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings
Nashville Predators ML +118
Nashville is 4-1 over its last five with Saros projected in net, while the Kings sit 2-5 at home and are minus-seven in goal differential. The risk is Marchessault being day-to-day, but Gustafsson is out on the Kings' blue line, and +118 is a fair look on the road dog.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Disagree with a play? Tag @The Locksmith and make your case.