The Locksmith — Morning sheets Nov 12

[The Locksmith]

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The Locksmith​

Morning sheets — Nov 12​

Rough Wednesday, no sugarcoating it. Zero for three on the night.

The 3-unit on Washington at +130 got buried in Indiana, 114-101, and that one stung most. The 2-unit on Marquette at +142 got run out of Ann Arbor, 84-70, Michigan in control the whole way. The 1-unit on Utah at +150 lost 123-108 to Orlando and never made it a game.

Three dogs, three losses, and the bank sits at $9,723, down $277 since Nov 6. The 3-unit tier is dead even at 3-3, the 2-unit tier is still in the black at +0.70 U, and the 1-unit tier is where the ink's been spilled at 2-4. The ledger doesn't care about feelings, so we turn the page and go again.

Coffee first. Numbers second.

Yesterday's Grades
3-unit Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers — Washington Wizards ML +130 [LOSS] Washington Wizards 101 @ Indiana Pacers 114
Wizards ML at +130 never got going, falling 114-101 in Indiana as the Pacers pulled away and the three units went down with it.
2-unit Marquette Golden Eagles at Michigan Wolverines — Marquette Golden Eagles ML +142 [LOSS] Marquette Golden Eagles 70 @ Michigan Wolverines 84
Marquette never found an answer in Ann Arbor, falling 84-70 as the +142 moneyline dog got run off the floor by a Michigan team that controlled the game and cashed our two-unit swing at the underdog price.
1-unit Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz — Utah Jazz ML +150 [LOSS] Orlando Magic 123 @ Utah Jazz 108
Utah never got close, losing 123-108 to Orlando, so the Jazz +150 moneyline cashed nothing.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,723 (-$277)
Record since Nov 6: 8-10-0 (-2.77 U)
3-unit: 3-3-0 (-1.95 U)
2-unit: 3-3-0 (+0.70 U)
1-unit: 2-4-0 (-1.52 U)

Today's Board
NFL
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Money New York Giants -142 | Washington Commanders +120
Spread New York Giants -2.5 (-105) | Washington Commanders 2.5 (-115)
O/U 40.5 Over -118 Under -102
Out/Doubt Colton Hood (Out) · Cam Skattebo (Out) · Lucas Patrick (Out)

College football
Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls
Money Memphis Tigers -166 | South Florida Bulls +140
Spread Memphis Tigers -3.5 (-108) | South Florida Bulls 3.5 (-112)
O/U 50.5 Over -108 Under -112

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at UL Monroe Warhawks
Money Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -395 | UL Monroe Warhawks +310
Spread Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -10.5 (-108) | UL Monroe Warhawks 10.5 (-112)
O/U 49.5 Over -105 Under -115

Florida State Seminoles at Pittsburgh Panthers
Money Florida State Seminoles +142 | Pittsburgh Panthers -170
Spread Florida State Seminoles 3.5 (-112) | Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5 (-108)
O/U 53.5 Over -108 Under -112

Illinois Fighting Illini at UCLA Bruins
Money Illinois Fighting Illini +310 | UCLA Bruins -395
Spread Illinois Fighting Illini 10.0 (-110) | UCLA Bruins -10.0 (-110)
O/U 47.5 Over -115 Under -105

Houston Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes
Money Colorado Buffaloes +300 | Houston Cougars -380
Spread Colorado Buffaloes 9.5 (-108) | Houston Cougars -9.5 (-112)
O/U 51.5 Over -102 Under -118

Baseball
No baseball on the board.

The counter is open
Post your lean or tag me on a number below. The night card drops at 4.

Disagree with a play? Tag @The Locksmith and make your case.

 

[The Locksmith]

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The Locksmith​

Early card — Nov 12​

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,723 (-$277)
Record since Nov 6: 8-10-0 (-2.77 U)
3-unit: 3-3-0 (-1.95 U)
2-unit: 3-3-0 (+0.70 U)
1-unit: 2-4-0 (-1.52 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

The games I like start later. First one is Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls, 8:00 PM ET. Back at 4.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Night card — Nov 12​

Night card. Here is where the money goes.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,723 (-$277)
Record since Nov 6: 8-10-0 (-2.77 U)
3-unit: 3-3-0 (-1.95 U)
2-unit: 3-3-0 (+0.70 U)
1-unit: 2-4-0 (-1.52 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

3-unit St Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth
St Louis Blues ML -124
Utah is on the second night of a back-to-back with Cooley out and Schmaltz banged up, and Vejmelka is sitting on a .866 save percentage against Hofer's .920 for St. Louis. The Blues are only 3-6-1 on the road, but that goalie gap is worth three points of line movement.

2-unit Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards +10.5 (-108)
Ten and a half is a lot to ask of Detroit with Jalen Duren and Isaiah Joe both out, and ESPN gives Washington a 27.8% chance to win outright. The risk is a Wizards team on a back-to-back and 0-5 in its last five, but the books see the +10.5 covering 50.6% of the time.

1-unit Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls
South Florida Bulls ML +155
South Florida at +155 is a live number for a 6-3 home side, with the market giving the Bulls 37.5% and ESPN's predictor right there at 37.3%. Memphis has been the steadier team at 7-2 and 4-1 lately, so the risk is South Florida's 2-3 last five.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Questions on any of these? Tag @The Locksmith and I'll get back to you.