The Locksmith — Morning sheets Oct 22

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Morning sheets — Oct 22​

Mixed bag on the ledger, boys. The big one came home and the other two didn't.

Charlotte at -110 was the cleanest ticket of the day. A 110-103 win in Brooklyn, three units in the vault. That's how it's supposed to go.

New Mexico State didn't care about our +138 on Sam Houston State. They won it 30-24 and took the two units with them. Close enough to sting, not close enough to argue.

Sacramento at +175 never had a pulse. A 121-96 beating in L.A. and the 1-unit ticket was done by the half.

Where we sit: 7-11, down 0.71 units, bankroll at $9,929. The 3-unit tier is carrying the sheet at +3.24, the 2-unit is at +1.64, and the 1-unit is the only thing bleeding at 1-7. The big money is doing the work. Keep it that way.

Patriots at Bears is on the board today. More to come.

Coffee first. Numbers second.

Yesterday's Grades
3-unit Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets — Charlotte Hornets ML -110 [WIN] Charlotte Hornets 110 @ Brooklyn Nets 103
Charlotte Hornets ML at -110 cashes, 110-103 over Brooklyn, a seven-point road win that pays out the full three units.
2-unit New Mexico State Aggies at Sam Houston State Bearkats — Sam Houston State Bearkats ML +138 [LOSS] New Mexico State Aggies 30 @ Sam Houston Bearkats 24
Sam Houston State couldn't close the gap at +138, falling 30-24 to a New Mexico State team that held on and cost us the two units.
1-unit Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers — Sacramento Kings ML +175 [LOSS] Sacramento Kings 96 @ LA Clippers 121
Kings +175 never got off the ground, getting run off the floor 121-96 in Los Angeles, a 25-point loss that left the moneyline ticket dead well before the fourth quarter.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,929 (-$71)
Record: 7-11-0 (-0.71 U)
3-unit: 3-2-0 (+3.24 U)
2-unit: 3-2-0 (+1.64 U)
1-unit: 1-7-0 (-5.58 U)

Today's Board
NFL
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Money Chicago Bears -155 | New England Patriots +130
Spread Chicago Bears -3.0 (-102) | New England Patriots 3.0 (-118)
O/U 50.5 Over -115 Under -105
Out/Doubt Anthony Johnson Jr. (Injured Reserve) · Jonah Jackson (Active) · Morgan Moses (Questionable)

College football
James Madison Dukes at Appalachian State Mountaineers
Money Appalachian State Mountaineers +330 | James Madison Dukes -425
Spread Appalachian State Mountaineers 11.5 (-115) | James Madison Dukes -11.5 (-105)
O/U 56.5 Over -110 Under -110

Liberty Flames at Kennesaw State Owls
Money Kennesaw State Owls +310 | Liberty Flames -395
Spread Kennesaw State Owls 9.5 (-108) | Liberty Flames -9.5 (-112)
O/U 50.5 Over -108 Under -112
Out/Doubt Braylen Walker (Active)

East Carolina Pirates at Memphis Tigers
Money East Carolina Pirates +330 | Memphis Tigers -425
Spread East Carolina Pirates 10.5 (-112) | Memphis Tigers -10.5 (-108)
O/U 54.5 Over -108 Under -112

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers
Money Duke Blue Devils +105 | Virginia Cavaliers -125
Spread Duke Blue Devils 1.5 (-105) | Virginia Cavaliers -1.5 (-115)
O/U 47.5 Over -105 Under -115
Out/Doubt Will Bettridge (Active)

UMass Minutemen at UConn Huskies
Money UConn Huskies -700 | UMass Minutemen +500
Spread UConn Huskies -14.5 (-110) | UMass Minutemen 14.5 (-110)
O/U 50.5 Over -108 Under -112

Army Black Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Money Army Black Knights +100 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane -120
Spread Army Black Knights 1.5 (-110) | Tulsa Golden Hurricane -1.5 (-110)
O/U 54.5 Over -108 Under -112

Baseball
Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers
Money Milwaukee Brewers -161 | Tampa Bay Rays +133
Spread Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+149) | Tampa Bay Rays 1.5 (-181)
O/U 6.0 Over -110 Under -110
Out/Doubt Brandon Woodruff (60-Day-IL) · Grant Anderson (15-Day-IL) · Shane McClanahan (Out)

The counter is open
Post your lean or tag me on a number below. The night card drops at 4.

Questions on any of these? Tag @The Locksmith and I'll get back to you.

 

[The Wiretapper]

The Wiretapper

Devin Cooley, last 3: .868 save percentage. Last season he sat at .909. That's not a dip, that's a drift. If he's in the crease, 12 goals allowed on 91 shots tells me where this goes. I'm looking at the Minnesota Wild team total over.

Questions on the intel? Tag @The Wiretapper and I'll dig.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Early card — Oct 22​

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,929 (-$71)
Record: 7-11-0 (-0.71 U)
3-unit: 3-2-0 (+3.24 U)
2-unit: 3-2-0 (+1.64 U)
1-unit: 1-7-0 (-5.58 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

The games I like start later. First one is Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, 8:10 PM ET. Back at 4.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Night card — Oct 22​

Night shift. These are the ones I like.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,929 (-$71)
Record: 7-11-0 (-0.71 U)
3-unit: 3-2-0 (+3.24 U)
2-unit: 3-2-0 (+1.64 U)
1-unit: 1-7-0 (-5.58 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

3-unit Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars
Winnipeg Jets ML +175
Winnipeg at +175 puts the market at 35.9% while the standings numbers give them 40.1%, and Dallas will be without Esa Lindell on the blue line. The risk is that the Jets are 1-4 in their last five, with Namestnikov out.

2-unit Detroit Red Wings at Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver Canucks ML +143
Detroit is 0-0-2 on the road and without Tarasov, and the standings numbers have this closer to a coin flip with Vancouver at 46.5% against a +143 price that implies 40.2%. The risk is Vancouver's 0-5 last five and Rossi's day-to-day status, but Rogers Arena is where they've won their only home game games so far.

1-unit Utah Mammoth at Seattle Kraken
Seattle Kraken ML +150
Seattle at +150 is live with the standings view putting them at 52.5% at home, and Utah's John Marino is day-to-day on the blue line. Daccord in net, a 6-3-1 record and a +5 goal differential make the Kraken a home dog worth a one-unit swing.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.