The Locksmith — Morning sheets Oct 25

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Morning sheets — Oct 25​

Morning, sharps. Kettle's on, sheets are spread out, and the phones don't ring until the numbers are right.

Yesterday
The card was empty and the vault stayed shut. Nothing to cash, nothing to eat. A quiet day is still a day we kept every dollar of the $10,000.

The slate's loaded for today and I've got eyes on a few of these numbers already. Steelers-Saints at a field goal and the Giants laying double digits on the road catch my eye first, with Browns-Titans at 36.5 not far behind. We'll talk numbers when the time comes.

Coffee first. Numbers second.

Yesterday's Grades
No official ticket was on the card. Nothing to cash.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $10,000 (starting bank)
Record since Oct 25: nothing graded yet

Today's Board
NFL
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
Money New Orleans Saints +136 | Pittsburgh Steelers -162
Spread New Orleans Saints 3.0 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 (-112)
O/U 43.5 Over -105 Under -115
Out/Doubt Cedric Tillman (Active) · Cesar Ruiz (Questionable) · Brandon Johnson (Active)

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Money Atlanta Falcons +120 | San Francisco 49ers -142
Spread Atlanta Falcons 2.5 (-105) | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115)
O/U 50.5 Over -108 Under -112
Out/Doubt Avieon Terrell (Questionable) · Michael Jerrell (Injured Reserve) · Christian Kirk (Active)

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Money Baltimore Ravens +124 | Cincinnati Bengals -148
Spread Baltimore Ravens 3.0 (-115) | Cincinnati Bengals -3.0 (-105)
O/U 46.5 Over -105 Under -115
Out/Doubt Tavius Robinson (Injured Reserve) · Tyler Huntley (Active) · Kyle Dugger (Active)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Money Carolina Panthers -155 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +130
Spread Carolina Panthers -3.0 (-102) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.0 (-118)
O/U 44.5 Over -108 Under -112
Out/Doubt Bam Martin-Scott (Active) · Thomas Incoom (Injured Reserve) · Luke Goedeke (Out)

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Money Cleveland Browns -130 | Tennessee Titans +110
Spread Cleveland Browns -1.5 (-110) | Tennessee Titans 1.5 (-110)
O/U 36.5 Over -118 Under -102
Out/Doubt Timmy Horne (Active) · K.J. Osborn (Active) · Maliek Collins (Active)

New York Giants at Houston Texans
Money Houston Texans -535 | New York Giants +400
Spread Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | New York Giants 10.5 (-112)
O/U 42.5 Over -112 Under -108
Out/Doubt Tank Dell (Active) · Blake Fisher (Out) · Jermaine Eluemunor (Questionable)

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Money Indianapolis Colts +260 | Minnesota Vikings -325
Spread Indianapolis Colts 6.5 (-105) | Minnesota Vikings -6.5 (-115)
O/U 41.5 Over -110 Under -110
Out/Doubt DeeJay Dallas (Active) · Jordan Mason (Active) · Rigoberto Sanchez (Active)

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Money Miami Dolphins +185 | New York Jets -225
Spread Miami Dolphins 4.5 (-110) | New York Jets -4.5 (-110)
O/U 39.5 Over -108 Under -112
Out/Doubt Kiko Mauigoa (Injured Reserve) · Max Mitchell (Out) · Kyle Louis (Active)

College football
No CFB in the window.

Baseball
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Money Milwaukee Brewers +100 | Tampa Bay Rays -120
Spread Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+175) | Tampa Bay Rays 1.5 (-214)
O/U 7.0 Over -106 Under -113
Out/Doubt Shane McClanahan (Out) · Jacob Melton (60-Day-IL) · Brian Fitzpatrick (60-Day-IL)

The counter is open
Post your lean or tag me on a number below. The night card drops at 4.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.

 

[The Wiretapper]

The Wiretapper

Kevin Lankinen. Last 3 starts: 15 goals against on 91 shots. That's a .835 save percentage, down from .875 last season. Not a blip, a trend. If he's in the crease, I'm looking at the Minnesota Wild team total over.

Questions on the intel? Tag @The Wiretapper and I'll dig.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Early card — Oct 25​

Early window. These go before their games start. The rest of the card comes at 4.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $10,000 (starting bank)
Record since Oct 25: nothing graded yet

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

1-unit Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans ML +118
ESPN's predictor has Tennessee at 50.3% while the betting market only gives them 44.9%, and Cleveland comes in missing DT Mike Hall Jr. with LB Quincy Williams questionable. The risk is Ridley and both Titans backs being out, but +118 at home in 70-degree calm still gets a look.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Questions on any of these? Tag @The Locksmith and I'll get back to you.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Night card — Oct 25​

Early plays stand. Here is the rest of the card.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $10,000 (starting bank)
Record since Oct 25: nothing graded yet

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

2-unit Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers ML +170
Green Bay at +170 is a fair ask when ESPN's predictor gives them 40.9% and the market lands at 36.2%, plus they're 4-2 and 4-1 in their last five. Detroit is missing C Seth McLaughlin and DT Mekhi Wingo, though the risk is Green Bay's own banged-up side with Kaleb Johnson out.

1-unit Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver Canucks ML +165
Minnesota is on the second night of a back-to-back with Calvin Pickard in net at a .800 save percentage, and Vancouver's market number moves 2.1 points their way once that and the rest are factored in. At +165 the Canucks only need to win 36.2% of the time, and the risk is a 2-9-1 team that has lost five straight.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.