The Locksmith — Morning sheets Oct 26

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Morning sheets — Oct 26​

Rough Sunday, no sugarcoating it. Three tickets, three losses, four units down.

Titans +118 got a good fight out of Tennessee but fell short 27-24. The Packers at +170 came up a field goal shy in Detroit, 20-17, and that one stung with two units on it. Vancouver at +165 never got going and Minnesota took it 4-2.

Two of the three were one-score games, so the reads weren't far off. They just didn't cash, and the vault sits at $9,600. We go back to the board and keep working.

Coffee first. Numbers second.

Yesterday's Grades
1-unit Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans — Tennessee Titans ML +118 [LOSS] Cleveland Browns 27 @ Tennessee Titans 24
Titans +118 fell three points short, 27-24, a one-score loss that kept Cleveland on top.
2-unit Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions — Green Bay Packers ML +170 [LOSS] Green Bay Packers 17 @ Detroit Lions 20
Green Bay came up three points short in Detroit, 20-17, and the +170 moneyline cashed nothing for the two units.
1-unit Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks — Vancouver Canucks ML +165 [LOSS] Minnesota Wild 4 @ Vancouver Canucks 2
Canucks at +165 never found their footing against Minnesota, falling 4-2 at home and sending the one-unit ticket to the loss column.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,600 (-$400)
Record since Oct 25: 0-3-0 (-4.00 U)
2-unit: 0-1-0 (-2.00 U)
1-unit: 0-2-0 (-2.00 U)

Today's Board
NFL
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Money Dallas Cowboys -218 | Philadelphia Eagles +180
Spread Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-108) | Philadelphia Eagles 4.5 (-112)
O/U 43.5 Over -112 Under -108
Out/Doubt Willie Lampkin (Active) · Tyler Steen (Active) · P.J. Locke (Injured Reserve)

College football
Delaware Blue Hens at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Money Delaware Blue Hens -105 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -115
Spread Delaware Blue Hens 1.5 (-115) | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -1.5 (-105)
O/U 55.5 Over -112 Under -108

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Missouri State Bears
Money Missouri State Bears -230 | Sam Houston State Bearkats +190
Spread Missouri State Bears -6.5 (-110) | Sam Houston State Bearkats 6.5 (-110)
O/U 49.5 Over -112 Under -108

Baseball
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Robert Gasser (5-5, 3.87) vs Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42)

The counter is open
Post your lean or tag me on a number below. The night card drops at 4.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Early card — Oct 26​

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,600 (-$400)
Record since Oct 25: 0-3-0 (-4.00 U)
2-unit: 0-1-0 (-2.00 U)
1-unit: 0-2-0 (-2.00 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

The games I like start later. First one is Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, 8:10 PM ET. Back at 4.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Night card — Oct 26​

Night shift. These are the ones I like.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,600 (-$400)
Record since Oct 25: 0-3-0 (-4.00 U)
2-unit: 0-1-0 (-2.00 U)
1-unit: 0-2-0 (-2.00 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

2-unit Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks ML +165
Indiana is on the second night of a back-to-back and missing McConnell, Zubac and Sheppard, which opens the door for Milwaukee at +165. The market gives the Bucks 39.0% to win, and at Fiserv Forum that's worth two units even with Milwaukee sitting 0-3.

1-unit Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets
Atlanta Hawks ML +168
Atlanta at +168 gets a 36.4% market win rate while ESPN's predictor gives them 43.3%, and the Hawks are 2-0 on the road and 4-1 in their last five. Houston is missing Marcus Smart and Steven Adams, though the risk is Atlanta being without Gueye and Veesaar.

3-unit Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz ML -110
ESPN's predictor has Utah at 58.6% while the betting market sits at 51.4%, and Memphis is on the second night of a back-to-back with Stewart and Lopez both day-to-day. The risk is Utah is also on the second night and short Alexander and Nurkic.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Got a number you want me to look at? Tag @The Locksmith.