The Locksmith — Morning sheets Oct 30

[The Locksmith]

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The Locksmith​

Morning sheets — Oct 30​

Thursday went one-for-three, and that one was the Packers. Green Bay -185 did the job at Lambeau, 27-19 over Carolina, and that's the only ticket I'm keeping a copy of.

The dog tickets bit back. Winnipeg at +195 scored four in Tampa and still lost it 6-4, and Sacramento at +200 never got a grip in New Orleans, dropping a 132-120 decision. The Jets one stings because they hung around. The Kings one doesn't, because that was never close.

Book's sitting at $9,100, down $900, and 4-11 since the 25th. That's a hole, and the only way out is working the number one game at a time. Fresh slate today. Let's go find some prices worth the money.

Coffee first. Numbers second.

Yesterday's Grades
2-unit Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning — Winnipeg Jets ML +195 [LOSS] Winnipeg Jets 4 @ Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Winnipeg pushed Tampa to the wire with four goals, but the Lightning's six was too much to overcome and the +195 ticket on the Jets didn't cash.
1-unit Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers — Green Bay Packers ML -185 [WIN] Carolina Panthers 19 @ Green Bay Packers 27
Packers cashed the -185 moneyline with a 27-19 win over Carolina, taking care of business at Lambeau.
1-unit Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans — Sacramento Kings ML +200 [LOSS] Sacramento Kings 120 @ New Orleans Pelicans 132
The Kings at +200 never got a grip on this one, falling 132-120 in New Orleans as the Pelicans controlled the game start to finish.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,100 (-$900)
Record since Oct 25: 4-11-0 (-9.00 U)
3-unit: 0-1-0 (-3.00 U)
2-unit: 2-3-0 (-0.54 U)
1-unit: 2-7-0 (-5.46 U)

Today's Board
NFL
No NFL in the window.

College football
Tulane Green Wave at Charlotte 49ers
Money Charlotte 49ers +275 | Tulane Green Wave -345
Spread Charlotte 49ers 8.5 (-110) | Tulane Green Wave -8.5 (-110)
O/U 47.5 Over -105 Under -115

Baylor Bears at UCF Knights
Money Baylor Bears -118 | UCF Knights -102
Spread Baylor Bears -1.5 (-108) | UCF Knights 1.5 (-112)
O/U 48.5 Over -108 Under -112

Kent State Golden Flashes at Sacramento State Hornets
Money Kent State Golden Flashes -290 | Sacramento State Hornets +235
Spread Kent State Golden Flashes -7.0 (-115) | Sacramento State Hornets 7.0 (-105)
O/U 46.5 Over -110 Under -110

Arizona Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Money Arizona Wildcats +145 | Texas Tech Red Raiders -175
Spread Arizona Wildcats 3.5 (-112) | Texas Tech Red Raiders -3.5 (-108)
O/U 54.5 Over -112 Under -108

Boston College Eagles at Duke Blue Devils
Money Boston College Eagles +225 | Duke Blue Devils -278
Spread Boston College Eagles 7.0 (-110) | Duke Blue Devils -7.0 (-110)
O/U 48.5 Over -105 Under -115

Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos
Money Bowling Green Falcons +400 | Western Michigan Broncos -535
Spread Bowling Green Falcons 13.5 (-105) | Western Michigan Broncos -13.5 (-115)
O/U 44.5 Over -108 Under -112

Baseball
No baseball on the board.

The counter is open
Post your lean or tag me on a number below. The night card drops at 4.

Disagree with a play? Tag @The Locksmith and make your case.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Early card — Oct 30​

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,100 (-$900)
Record since Oct 25: 4-11-0 (-9.00 U)
3-unit: 0-1-0 (-3.00 U)
2-unit: 2-3-0 (-0.54 U)
1-unit: 2-7-0 (-5.46 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

The games I like start later. First one is Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET. Back at 4.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Questions on any of these? Tag @The Locksmith and I'll get back to you.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE ​

The Locksmith​

Night card — Oct 30​

Night shift. These are the ones I like.

Vault bank
Bankroll: $9,100 (-$900)
Record since Oct 25: 4-11-0 (-9.00 U)
3-unit: 0-1-0 (-3.00 U)
2-unit: 2-3-0 (-0.54 U)
1-unit: 2-7-0 (-5.46 U)

High Roller
Quiet. Nothing filed.

Official plays

2-unit Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns ML +152
Phoenix at +152 gets the nod at home, where the Suns are 1-0, with ESPN putting them at 46.1% against a market number of 38.9%. Denver is missing Cameron Johnson, Alpha Diallo and Spencer Jones, while the risk is Phoenix without Mark Williams.

1-unit Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
Orlando Magic ML +185
ESPN's predictor has Orlando at 45.3% while the betting market sits at 34.7%, and with Toronto missing Kawhi Leonard and Nate Bittle, +185 is worth a look. The Magic are 1-1 on the road and the Raptors have only two home games behind them; the risk is Banchero, Suggs and Isaac all being out.

1-unit Baylor Bears at UCF Knights
UCF Knights ML +110
UCF at +110 sits at 46.6% on the betting market, while ESPN's predictor leans the Knights at 51.3%, and both teams are 4-3 with identical 3-2 runs over their last five. A 77-degree night with 10 mph wind keeps conditions neutral in what looks like a coin flip.

Post your lean or tag me below.

Disagree with a play? Tag @The Locksmith and make your case.