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Thursday Night Shop Talk – Commanders at Giants, Week 10

Jimmy Hoffa

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Brothers and sisters, it's Thursday evening and we've got one game tonight. Let's talk through what matters before kickoff.

Washington Commanders at New York Giants – Thu Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET, MetLife Stadium (Prime Video)

Both clubs played Sunday, so both are on a short week with 4 days of rest. Nobody gets an edge there.

Weather: showers, 52 degrees at an open stadium. That's a wet ball, wet turf, a night where nobody's throwing dimes.

The spread hasn't moved. DraftKings opened NYG -1.5 and that's where it sits right now. The books haven't found a reason to adjust who they favor.

The total is a different story. It opened 47.5 and it's sitting at 40.5 right now. That is a significant drop, and you've got reasons staring you in the face.

For the Giants, J.J. McCarthy (Giants QB) is listed Questionable. Cam Skattebo (Giants RB) is ruled Out. That's your starting quarterback uncertain and your backfield taking a hit.

For Washington, Treylon Burks (Commanders WR) is Out. Colson Yankoff (Commanders TE) is Out with a knee. Lucas Patrick (Commanders G) is Out with a concussion — that's the offensive line getting dinged up, which affects everything.

Stack the banged-up offenses on top of rain and cold and you can see how the number got here.

What it means for you: When a total drops this much before kickoff, the books already priced in the injuries and weather — chasing the under now means you're buying at the worst number of the week, not the best.

Shop your books tonight, brothers and sisters. The books don't do us any favors but they don't have to be the only book you use.

With all these moving parts on both rosters, which side of this total do you trust at 40.5?

Hear something I should know? Tag @Jimmy Hoffa.
 
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